Vietnam’s GDP growth predicted to reach 6.13-6.48% in 2024: CIEM
The Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) and the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) on January 15 jointly held a workshop on Vietnam's economic situation in 2023 and prospects in 2024.
Hanoi (VNA) – The Central Institute for Eco🅺nomicManagement (CIEM) and the German Agency for International Co🔯operation (GIZ) on January 15 jointly held a workshop on Vietnam's economic situation in 2023 and prospects in 2024.
Launching a report titled “Vietnam's economy in 2023 and prospectsfor 2024: Reforms to accelerate growth recovery” at the event, CIEM experts forecast that Vietnam's GDP will grow by 6.13% in the first scenarioand 6.48% in the second scenario with the entire year’s exports increasing by4.02% and 5.19%, respectively. The country's trade surplus is predicted to hit 5.64 billion USD and6.26 billion USD in the first and the second scenarios, respectively, while the average inflation this year isforecast to stand at 3.94% and 3.72%. CIEM Director Tran Thi Hong Minh said that Vietnam’s economy in particular and the global economy in generalwill continue facing headwinds in 2024. However, Vietnam can reap further positive economic achievementsin the coming time if the quality of institutional reforms have been improved. Vietnam does not only rely on fiscal and monetary solutions topromote economic growth but also creates a lot of new motivations from economicinstitutional reforms. Those driving forces come from promoting innovation,developing new economic models, reforming the business environment,restructuring the economy, and perfecting regional linkage planning andinstitutions. The Government has also frankly acknowledged and asked foradvice on the issues that need to be resolved, she stressed. Minh emphasised that experts’ recommendations on strengtheningfiscal and monetary expansion for the country’s economic growth are also basedon the assessments of improving institutional quality and macro-economicmanagement.
Delegates at the workshop. (Photo: VNA)
CIEM's report also evaluates the results of Vietnam’s implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP) over the past two years. Accordingly, the results in the period 2018-2023 showed that theproportion of Vietnam's imports and exports withRCEP member countries has seen a downward trend and the utilisation of incentivesthat the RCEP offers is still relatively low, just 0.67%. Experts recommended that the country to continue toovercome challenges in implementing the RCEP as well as effectivelyaccessing and maximising benefits from the trade deal./.
2023 continues to be a tough year for the world economy as COVID-19 pandemic has still taken heavy tolls while a series of new challenges have emerged, including geopolitical conflicts, tight monetary policies in major economies and world economic slowdown.
The Vietnamese market is expected to welcome 230,500 more enterprises, both newly established and those resuming operations, in 2024, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO).
The website Bloomberg.com of the US on January 8 cited analysts' opinions, saying that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), among the first in Asia to lower borrowing costs in 2023, willl likely keep its benchmark interest rate steady through next year as it tackles economic growth and inflation concerns.
The forecast for 2024 indicates that consumer demand will continue to be a primary contributor to Vietnam's economic growth, in addition to the ripple effects of public investment and exports.
Many international financial institutions have expressed their optimism about Vietnam’s GDP growth, and shared the view that it would reach at least 6% this year.
A key change in the draft decree is a provision requiring bank transfers for gold transactions valued at 20 million VND (765 USD) and above, to enhance transparency and verify customer identities.
In the first four months of 2025, trade turnover between Vietnam and Cambodia surpassed 3 billion USD, marking a 7% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
On June 19 alone, a total of 2,005 trucks completed customs clearance at Lang Son’s border gates — the highest single-day figure ever recorded in the province. Of these, 634 carried exports and 1,371 imports.
The OECD Economic Surveys: Vietnam 2025 report focuses on analysing the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals, the impact of international integration on attracting foreign investment and trade, and the country’s prospects for developing a low-carbon economy.
Antoine Colin, Senior Vice President for Global Supply Chain Digital Transformation & Resilience at HP Inc., affirmed HP’s strategic commitment to building a supply chain and ecosystem in Vietnam and the region.
Deputy Director General of the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT)’s Trade Promotion Agency Bui Quang Hung emphasised that logistics has evolved from a technical function into a core capability for Vietnamese exporters to maintain their competitive advantage in the US market.
A trade official has suggested companies work closely with shipping lines, airlines, and freight forwarders to monitor routes, transit times, and potential surcharges while exploring broader cargo insurance to cover risks like war and terrorism.
In addition to institutional reform, the agency is also rolling out key solution groups to combat counterfeit goods, imitations, and intellectual property infringements in the digital environment.
The event, co-organised by the Vietnam Trade Office in the UK and TT Meridian, a local importer of Vietnamese fresh produce, aims to build a national lychee brand and encourage broader recognition of Vietnamese fruits in a competitive, high-end market.
The industry's performance has been powered by bold investments in modern production lines, enabling Vietnamese firms to produce complicated products which were exclusive to advanced economies.
Outcomes of ABAC III will shape ABAC’s final policy recommendations to be submitted to the ABAC-APEC leaders’ dialogue, scheduled to take place in the Republic of Korea this November.
This is the second year the magazine has released the ranking, which is based on total revenue and key financial indicators of enterprises from seven countries in the region: Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Cambodia.
At the summit, publishing, tech, and media sectors will discuss emerging trends, business models, and sustainable solutions for digital publishing development in Vietnam.
This year’s “Vietnam Goods Week” marks a significant milestone as it is being held simultaneously for the first time in four locations across Asia: Japan, Hong Kong (China), Cambodia, and Malaysia, from June 19 - 22.
According to NordCham Vietnam Chairman Thue Quist Thomasen, the Vietnamese Government’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 is both a challenge and an opportunity for businesses to contribute to green and sustainable growth.
The analysis from an investment perspective shows that the economy’s growth has been heavily capital‑driven, yet efficiency remains low as reflected by Vietnam’s Incremental Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR) being significantly higher than global and regional averages. This underscores the imperative to enhance capital‑use efficiency.
Illustrative photo (Photo: VNA) 
Delegates at the workshop. (Photo: VNA) 
