Vietnam's economy shows signs of stronger recovery in Q4: UOB
Experts from the United Overseas Bank (UOB) report that Vietnam’s manufacturing output has been accelerating since registering negative growth in May, indicating that the growth momentum of the sector may extend to 2024.
Trade activities, production, and domestic consumption have all shown improvements. (Photo: VietnamPlus)
Hanoi (VNA) – The Market Research and Global Economic Department by the United Overseas Bank (UOB) has released forecasts for economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, emphasising that Vietnam's actual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has accelerated to 5.33%, compared to the same period in the third quarter, ꦆup from 4.14% in the second quarterಌ of the year. This growth is supported by improvements in trade activities, production, and domestic consumption, following challenges faced in the first half of 2023.
Data published between October and November this year once again confirms that economic activities have stabilized. There were noticeable improvements in certain sectors compared to the first half of the year.
Retail sales of goods and services increased by 10.1% in November compared to the same period in October, rising from 7.0% in October and marking the fastest growth since May.
Industrial production grew by 5.8% in November compared to the same period last year.
The year-to-date index for both the industrial production and manufacturing sectors has turned positive since September, following fluctuations in negative territory earlier in 2023.
Production output has been continuously accelerating since registering negative growth in May, indicating that the growth momentum of the sector may extend to 2024.
The reduction in interest rates by the State Bank of Vietnam has helped cut business costs, and the government has implemented various policies to support enterprises.
A recent report indicates that Vietnam has decided to cut the value-added tax (VAT) by 2 percentage points, from 10% to 8%, effective from January 1 to June 30, 2024. However, certain industry groups will not benefit from this tax reduction.
Also according to UOB, the real estate market in Vietnam is showing signs of stability and recovery.
Reports indicate that many investors have resumed sales activities and launched new projects. The Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) has reported a series of large-scale projects spanning various regions from the North to the South, with sales campaigns being deployed to enhance housing supply.
"We expect the momentum from the third quarter of 2023 to continue into the final quarter of the year, especially with many domestic support policies. We maintain our full-year growth forecast for Vietnam at 5.0%, assuming the actual GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 will increase to 7.0% compared to the same period last year," stated UOB.
UOB experts evaluate that the State Bank of Vietnam responded promptly to the economic downturn earlier this year by quickly reducing interest rates. (Photo: VietnamPlus)
UOB experts evaluate that the State Bank of Vietnam responded promptly to the economic downturn earlier this year by quickly reducing interest rates. The latest policy rate cut in June lowered the accumulated refinancing rate to 150 basis points, bringing it down to 4.50%./.
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Trade activities, production, and domestic consumption have all shown improvements. (Photo: VietnamPlus)
UOB experts evaluate that the State Bank of Vietnam responded promptly to the economic downturn earlier this year by quickly reducing interest rates. (Photo: VietnamPlus)
