Goods are transported for export at Hai Phong International Port. (Photo: VNA) The latest report from the General Statistics Office (GSO) showed Vietnam'sGDP growth rate in the first nine months of 2022 hit a 12-year high to reach 8.83%.Notably, the economy expanded 13.76% in Q3 2022 compared to 7.72% and 5.05% inQ2 and Q1 2022, respectively. The 13.7% GDP expansion in Q3 2022 was arecord quarterly growth rate in Vietnam and surpassed the rate of 13.5% ofIndia to become the highest in Asia this year.
The World Bank attributed Vietnam’s rebound to a recovery ofexports and the release of pent-up demand following the removal ofCOVID-19-related mobility restrictions and, more recently, the gradual returnof foreign tourists.
Vietnam’s economic growth was reported in all three key sectors,of which services increased by 10.57%, industry-construction up 9.63%, andagriculture-forestry-fishery up 2.99%.
The country’s import-export turnover during the period increasedby 15.1% to 558.5 billion USD with a trade surplus of 6.52 billion USD whiletotal retail sales of consumer goods and services surged by 21%.
Besides, the business situation has been continually improving,with the number of newly established enterprises surging by 38.6% to more than163,000.
Disbursement of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first ninemonths of this year also surged 16.2% year-on-year to 15.4 billion USD, markinga five-year record high, the Ministry of Planning and Investment's ForeignInvestment Agency (FIA) reported.
These positive figures showed foreign-invested enterprises havebeen constantly recovering and expanding their production and businessactivities in Vietnam, which has reflected business confidence in the country’ssuccess in maintaining macroeconomic stability, FIA said in its Septemberreport.
According to Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, the economy hasrecovered very positively, with many cities and provinces nationwide reportingimpressive Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) growth in the first threequarters, including Ho Chi Minh City with 9.97%, Hanoi with 9.69%, Bac Ninhwith 9.7%, Hai Duong with 10.14%, Quang Ninh with 10.12%, Hai Phong with 12.06%,Can Tho with 17.57%, Da Nang with 16.76%, Khanh Hoa with 20.48% and Bac Giangwith 23.98%.
Notably, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung saidthe country’s high economic growth has been accompanied by stabilising themacro-economy, successfully controlling inflation, ensuring major balances ofthe economy and improving people's living standards.
The GSO reported the country’s average consumer price index in thefirst nine months was only 2.73% while State budget revenue and totalinvestment capital of the whole society surged by 22% and 12.5% over the sameperiod in 2021, respectively.
Many international organisations have been so far surprised by thevery high growth rate of above 13% of Vietnam in the third quarter of thisyear. The impressive surge has resulted in their upgrade of the country’seconomic growth forecast, of which Moody’s, Fitch Ratings, World Bank (WB) andInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) predict Vietnam's GDP growth in 2022 at 8.5%,7.9%, 7.2% and 7%, respectively
The upgrade is very notable when the organisations have loweredtheir 2022 global economic growth outlook. For example, in last month’s report,while having raised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam this year to 7.5% from5.3% in April, the World Bank projected the overall rate of the East Asia andPacific region to slow to 3.2% this year from 7.2% in 2021.
Moody's Investors Service last month also upgraded the VietnameseGovernment's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to Ba2 from Ba3. Vietnamis the only country in the Asia-Pacific region and one of four countries in theworld that have had their credit rating upgraded by Moody's since the beginningof the year.
Moody’s noted in the report: “The upgrade to Ba2 reflects Vietnam'sgrowing economic strengths relative to peers and greater resilience to externalmacroeconomic shocks that are indicative of improved policy effectiveness, andwhich Moody's expects to continue as the economy benefits from supply chainreconfiguration, export diversification and continued inbound investment inmanufacturing.
“The rating also reflects a sounder fiscal footing backed bycontained borrowing costs, a conservative approach to fiscal policy andimproved government liquidity, driven by the ongoing transition from externalconcessional borrowing toward longer-dated, low-cost domestic marketfinancing.”
According to Tran Van Son, Minister – Chairman of the GovernmentOffice, international organisations have positive assessments of Vietnam'ssocio-economic situation. They forecast the country's economic growth rates in2022 and 2023 will be among the highest in Southeast Asia.
Economist Brian Lee Shun Rong at Malaysia's largest financialservices group Maybank believed as a rising star in the global supply chain, Vietnamhas the potential to become a new ‘tiger’ in Asia after the Republic of Korea(RoK), Singapore, and China's Taiwan and Hong Kong.
Exceeding targets
The strong GDP recovery in the first nine months of the year,especially in Q3, has created a prerequisite for Vietnam’s vigorous growth in2022 and the country is so far estimated to meet nearly all 15 targets set forthis year. According to the National Assembly's (NA) Committee for EconomicAffairs, 15 social-economic development targets, except the social labourproductivity growth rate, are expected to be met or exceeded this year.
Right after the nine-month socio-economic statistics werepublished, the Ministry of Planning and Investment also decided to adjust upthe 2022 economic growth scenario. Accordingly, the ministry proposes to strivefor a full-year growth of 8%, about 1.5-2 percentage points higher than the6-6.5% target assigned by the National Assembly and set by the Government.
According to experts, production and service activities in Vietnamhave returned to normal and the country will continually benefit from theglobal supply chain shift, which will contribute to strongly boosting up thecountry’s exports.
However, in the context that the world economy will continue toface many difficulties in the last months of the year and the demand forimported goods from countries that are the main trading partners of Vietnamsuch as the US and the EU will decrease, members of the NA’s Committee forEconomic Affairs said it is necessary to have policies to support credit forexports in the remaining months of the year and in 2023.
Besides, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung notedthe country needs to promote the disbursement of public investment capital toachieve a high growth rate in the rest months of the year.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the total public investmentcapital will be some 24.3 billion USD in 2022, about 4.2 billion USD higher thanin 2021. By the end of September, the disbursement of public investmentincreased to more than 10.6 billion USD, but the new rate reached merely 46.7%of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister, 0.7% lower than in the same period2021.
Besides, Dung said, to promote economic growth in Q4, it is alsonecessary to better implement the Government’s socio-economic development andrecovery programme, which includes a 40 trillion VND interest subsidy packagefor pandemic-affected customers, as the capital disbursement of the packageremains limited.
Higher economic growth rates in Q4 and the whole of 2022 will be adriver for the country next year when many potential risks emerge, Dung said./.
VNA
