Siam Square, usually packed with teenagers, is once again vacant during Thailand's latest outbreak. (Photo: Bangkokpost) Bangkok (VNA) – Thailand’s GDP growth could drop below the 3.2percent baseline projection due to lower foreign arrivals amidst uncertaintyregarding COVID-19 vaccine efficiency, and reduced fiscal stimulus, accordingto the latest minute from the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee(MPC).
The country has been grappling with higher infections since thestart of 2021, with stringent restrictions imposed in five provinces to curbthe contagion.
The MPC is a seven-member panel under the Bank of Thailand that sets thebenchmark interest rate. The committee has been maintaining the 0.5 percentpolicy interest rate, a historic low, following three rate cuts undertakenearly last year to lend support for feeble economic conditions.
Uncertaintiessurrounding the Covid-19 situation in the near term as well as uncertaintiesregarding vaccine efficacy and vaccination coverage in Thailand could affectthe progress in the admission of foreign tourists and tourism recovery,according to the minutes.
The projected number of foreign tourist arrivals has been revised downfollowing the new outbreak. The central bank forecasts inbound arrivals offoreign tourist arrivals in 2021 will tally at 5.5 million, a decline from anearlier projection of 9 million.
Thailand registered 6.7 million foreign tourist arrivals in the first 11 monthsof 2020, down 81.4 percent year-on-year.
The Tourism and Sports Ministry reported tourism receipts in the first ninemonths were valued at 655 billion THB (21.87 billion USD), down 70.6 percentfrom the same period last year.
Public expenditure, one of the main drivers sustaining Thailand's economy lastyear, is anticipated to be revised down, driven mainly by thelower-than-expected fiscal year 2021 annual budget and the carryover budget aswell as a reduction and postponement of state-owned enterprise investment,according to the minutes.
Meanwhile, fiscal stimulus could be lower than assumed in the baseline projectionowing to a delay in disbursement under the post-pandemic economic recoveryplan, the phase-out of government measures to stimulate private consumption inthe first half of 2021 and the earmarking of funds available under the 1-trillion-bahtemergency loan decree, approaching the deadline in the second half of 2021./.
VNA
