Hanoi VNA – Vietnam could see a significant impact on its economy if the US proceeds with the 46% reciprocal tariff on its exports, a move that experts estimate could impact as much as 7–💧7.5% of the Southeast Asian nation’s GDP.

Behind the trade surplus figures, experts believe the US government is likely factoring in Vietnam’s role in global supply chains and its relationship with China.

A real and present threat

Economist Nguyen Tri Hieu called the 46% tariff an unprecedented measure, both globally and for Vietnam in particular, which, he said would have a strong impact on Vietnam’s foreign trade and GDP growth. Beyond the trade surplus, Hieu pointed out that the US government may be considering Vietnam’s growing role in global trade.

Imposing the tariff at such an unimaginable level could be the US’s way of preventing Chinese goods from being disguised as Vietnamese products. Therefore, Vietnam needs to recognise that the US government's stance forms part of its pursuit of shared interests, Hieu said. Pham Luu Hung, Chief Economist at SSI Securities warned the economic impact could be significant. Hung explained that Vietnam’s exports to the US amount to 120 billion USD, and if the value added is about 30%, then in the worst-case scenario, the initial impacts could range from 7% to 7.5% of Vietnam’s GDP. The figure is far higher than the earlier estimates of 1–1.5% in case of a 10–15% tariff. Hung called the 46% rate a “ceiling” to initiate the negotiation process.

Vietnam’s diplomatic efforts

Hieu suggested continuing dialogue and exploring ways to increase imports of American products—such as agricultural goods, aircraft, and high-tech equipment—to help balance trade. However, he cautioned that the chance of the US completely excluding Vietnam from its tariff list remains slim. He also suggested Vietnam considers diversifying export markets as a critical strategy. A 46% tariff would severely undermine Vietnam’s competitiveness in the US, Hieu warned. Consumers would turn to alternatives from countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, or India. Experts acknowledged Vietnam’s ongoing efforts to address trade tensions. Hung noted recent positive moves, including Vietnam lowering tariffs on 14 categories of goods and adopting new policies in key sectors. He also cited the recent visit to the US by the Minister of Industry and Trade, as well as draft legislation on strategic trade controls and intellectual property rights protection.

Adjusting with flexibility

At a briefing on April 3, Truong Ba Tuan, Deputy Director of the Department of Tax Policy, Charges and Fees Management and Supervision under the Ministry of Finance, said the tariff would negatively affect Vietnamese manufacturing—particularly in key export sectors such as electronics, agriculture, textile, and footwear. Tuan said the Ministry of Finance has begun adapting by lowering some import tariffs and reviewing related taxes like VAT and environmental levies.

Tuan noted Vietnam’s average tariff is 9.4%, compared to around 15% for most US goods. He stressed the need to clarify why such steep US tariffs are being proposed, given Vietnam’s already lower rates. Deputy Finance Minister Nguyen Duc Chi added that Vietnam has proactively reviewed import taxes—especially on US goods—to work towards a more balanced trade relationship. Chi said the focus should be on sustainable, mutually beneficial trade, not raising tariffs, and called for practical, growth-driven solutions./.