Gemalink Deep-Sea Port in Ba Rịa - Vung Tau province (Photo: VNA) These projections stem from the Government's socio-economic developmentstrategy for the 2021-25 period, combined with endeavours to meet the 2023growth goal of 6.5%.
Given the challenges faced by the Vietnamese economy between 2021-23, 2024 isanticipated to be a pivotal year for Vietnam to accomplish the objectives ofits five-year plan.
In the first scenario, Vietnam's GDP is predicted to rise by 6%. This estimatepresumes that global growth will be moderate in 2023 and the resurgence ofglobal trade and investment will continue to face hurdles. Although thedomestic market and services sector might exhibit robust growth, the import,export, and industrial production sectors may not experience a marked recoverydue to their reliance on global market demand.
The Ministry of Planning and Investment believes a GDP growth target of 6%would be fitting, given the expected continued risks the global and domesticeconomies may encounter during the recovery phase.
Under the second scenario, the ministry envisages a GDP growth of 6.5%,assuming that both the global and regional economies rebound quicker thaninternational organisations' predictions. This scenario also considers a surgein demand, trade, and investment. Concurrently, the domestic market wouldlikely experience revivals in demand, production, business activities, exports,investment, and FDI influx.
For the third scenario, the GDP growth is projected to range between 6 - 6.5%,reflecting predictions of swift changes in both global and domestic contexts.The Ministry of Planning and Investment favours this third scenario.
While optimism regarding economic recovery is on the rise, variousorganisations and specialists remain wary about the prospects for Vietnam'seconomy.
In mid-July, the Asian Development Bank adjusted its 2023 forecast for theVietnamese economy downwards from 6.5% to 5.8% and its 2024 projection from 6.8%to 6.2%.
Similarly, in early April, the World Bank anticipated a moderate 4.7% growthfor Vietnam in 2023, progressively increasing to 5.5% in 2024 and reaching 6%by 2025.
The World Bank’s report pointed out that a proactive fiscal policy supportingshort-term demand, removing barriers to the implementation of public investmentand addressing infrastructure constrains could help the economy achieve thesetargets and prolong long-term growth./.
VNA
