Currency of Malaysia, Indonesia - outperformers in Southeast Asia in 2024: Standard Chartered
Malaysian ringgit (MYR) and Indonesian rupiah (IDR) are expected to be outperformers in the Southeast Asian region in 2024 “on a relative basis,” benefitting most from monetary policy divergences, according to Standard Chartered.
Kuala Lumpur (VNA) – Malaysian ringgit (MYR) and Indonesian rupiah (IDR) are expected to be outperformers in the Southeast Asian region in 2024 “on a relativebasis,” benefitting most from monetary policy divergences, according toStandard Chartered.
According tonewly-released global research report of the bank, in terms of relativeperformance, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit are expected to outperform and Philippine peso (PHP) to underperform. Meanwhile, the bank is relatively neutral on Singaporedollar (SGD), Thai baht (THB) and Vietnamese dong (VND).
Expertsfrom the bank believes US policy rate differentials have bottomedout as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has moved clearly into a pause phase.
This should help return flows in favour ofregional ASEAN currencies, thereport said.
Accordingto the bank, there are two factors limiting the upside. First, based onits projections, US policy rates could remain historically high versusASEAN economies by the end of 2024. Second, ASEAN central banks may also cutrates, particularly those who had hiked partly to stave off foreign exchange(forex) weakness.
Therefore, it reckons that Malaysia, Thailandand Vietnam’s interest rate differentials will improve, while Indonesia’srate differential against the US will remain similar to current levels,while the Philippines’ rate differential versus the US dollar willworsen in 2024.
Besidesinterest rate differentials, looser US financial conditions should also aidASEAN forex. Standard Chartered sees Malaysian ringgit beingpotentially the largest regional beneficiary on onshore USdollar deposit&nbౠsp;positioning./.
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Illustrative photo (Photo: thestar.com.my) 
