Phnom Penh (VNA) - The Cambodian government is optimistic that the nation’s economy will see V-shaped growth in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, in contrast to the U-shaped scenario projected by economic experts.

The Khmer Times newspaper quoted the government’s spokesman Phay Siphan at a news conference held last week as saying that there will be a boom in the tourism industry when people are once again allowed to travel, adding that foreign tourists will flock to Cambodia in return for kindness in the case of MS Westerdam cruise ship.

Phay said he has based his forecast on Cambodia’s decision to allow the cruise ship to dock in Sihanoukville in February.

In economic terms, leading business and market experts at Bloomberg.com describe a V-shaped recovery as a trajectory ‘in which the rebound is swift as the slump’. 

However, Hong Vannak, a business researcher at the Royal Academy of Cambodia is one of several experts warning the recovery is more likely to be U-shaped, meaning it could take up to two years to regain economic stability.

Tourism, a priority sector in the country, has been hard-hit and it will take time for traveller confidence to return. That will ultimately shape the recovery, he explained.

The garment and export industry – which netted Cambodia 9.35 billion USD in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 11 percent – is also expected to follow the same pattern of recovery. 

This is due to the EU’s decision to partially suspend preferential tariffs previously applied to the garment exports from Cambodia. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted Cambodia’s 2020 GDP will experience a negative growth of 1.7 percent this year./.