Illustrative image (Photo: VNA) According to VASEP, in the best scenario with a recovery of themarket and a stable supply of raw materials, seafood exports in theremaining five months of 2023 may reach over 4 billion USD, bringing the totalexport value in 2023 to 9 billion USD and representing a decline of 15-16%compared to 2022.
Of which, the export value is forecasted to plunge by 28% forpangasius to 1.7-1.8 billion USD, and 16-18% for shrimp to about 3.5-3.6billion USD. Exports of tuna and squid-octopus will decrease by 14-15% to 870million USD and 650 million USD, respectively.
VASEP’s communications director Le Hang said seafood exports areexpected to recover as the economic performance of major markets is forecastedto be more positive in the second half of the year, while the import demand ofmarkets such as the US and China is tending to increase again. Those marketshave lower inventory and are preparing supplies for their year-endfestivities and the new year.
Enterprises and the seafood supply chains are supported interms of capital in a timely manner aswell as production and business conditions to maintain stable supply ofraw materials for export contracts in the future, Hang said.
Meanwhile, Vietnam's export seafood products have stable supplyand competitive prices compared to other countries, she said.
According to VASEP, seafood exports in the first seven months ofthis year were estimated to reach nearly 5 billion USD, down 25% year-on-year.Among key products, pangasius had the strongest reduction at 36% in exportscompared to the same period of last year, followed by shrimp and tuna (down 27%).
In July, the value of seafood exports was estimated at 830million USD, down 11% compared to the same period in 2022.
The most obvious recovery signal was in the Chinese market with ayear-on-year increase of 45% in export value to 180 million USD in July.
Exports to other key markets in July plunged between 5and 40% over the same period of last year, including the US, the Republicof Korea and the EU.
The Japanese market was more positive thanks to value-added andprocessed goods, especially marine fish.
China is still expected to be the most prospective market forlocal aquatic product enterprises because trade activities aregradually returning to normal. In the second half of the year, China's economywill likely be more stable, and people's income and consumption will beimproved. Therefore, Vietnam's aquatic product exports to China and Hong Kong(China) will have a chance to recover, reaching a total turnover of about 1.8billion USD for both.
Tran Dinh Luan, Director of Fisheries Department under theMinistry of Agriculture and Rural Development, said Vietnam is verylikely to achieve 9 billion USD from the aquatic product exports of thewhole year.
The ministry still keeps the export target of 10 billion USD althoughit requires much effort to reach this goal, according to Deputy Ministerof Agriculture and Rural Development Phung Duc Tien.
According to VASEP, there are positive signals in exports both forshrimp and pangasius. The pangasius volume exported to the US has reached over50% of the plan. The pangasius inventories in this market have fallen.Therefore, the fishery industry should prepare all resources to seize thisopportunity. It's the same situation for shrimp exports, Tien said.
Besides that, a credit package of 15 trillion VND is beingimplemented to create good conditions for the businesses to promote seafoodexports in the future, he said.
VASEP has also released a less optimistic scenario. When themarket shows signs of recovery and demand will increase again, but Vietnam'sseafood products still struggle to compete in terms of price and supply withother countries such as Ecuador, India, Indonesia, and Thailand.
That means the industry does not have immediate and long-term solutionsdealing with high production costs, a reduction in profits, and a lack ofcapital for the development of inventories leading to a shortage of rawmaterials for production in the second half of the year.
With that scenario, the value of exports is estimated toreach about 3.5 - 3.7 billion USD in the last five months of the year, and 8.5 -8.7 billion USD for the whole year of 2023. Of which, the deepest decline inexports is still in the two industries of pangasius and shrimp.
Seafood exports may be worse if the 'yellow card' warning issuedto Vietnam by the European Union is not lifted after the workingsession of the commission's fourth inspection team in October 2023./.
VNA
